TCDB Trade #1 (and Secret Santa news)

Some quick bulletin points before I get to my first completed trade on the Trading Card Database:

• Tomorrow is Election Day in the USA. Y'all better vote - even if you're sick of politics (I know I am!)
  
• This year's Secret Santa gift exchange will be hosted by Jon. Head on over to his blog A Penny Sleeve For Your Thoughts for the info.

Night Owl informs me that it is National Redhead Day. I am ashamed of myself for not already knowing this...so here are some gingers I find interesting and/or attractive:

Katherine McNamara

Molly Quinn

Karen Gillan

I finished adding all of my basketball cards (more than 3,200) to the Trading Card Database. About half of them are for trade. I'll have a recap post up by the end of the week. That led to my first trade, which I mentioned was with a user from Sweden. I haven't received my end of that trade yet (he's got his cards, so it should be soon.) 

In the meantime I made a trade with Trevor P, author of the blog Bump and Run Football Cards. Those cards were received today, and so this marks my first completed trade on TCDB. Trevor is a fellow Packers fan, and so I traded about 50 of my green and gold dupes for some set fillers and football stars.

 

I'm now down to single digits in my 2015 Topps set build, thanks to these cards. 

Technically I already had card #656, but as you can see it had a "rediscover Topps" stamp on it.

 

Trevor had 21 cards I needed for this year's flagship set, which got me past the 65% completion mark. Biggest names were the Klubot, the Bringer of Rain, and the MVP.

 

A trio of HOFers from the 2012 Cooperstown set. I picked these up for Jon if he wants 'em. If not I'll stash 'em in my star box.

My football star box got a nice boost with this six-pack of Prizm featuring the greatest QB of all-time...and Tom Brady.

Some Season Ticket base cards here. I don't think Edelman qualifies as a "star" (or a clean player) but I didn't have any of his cards until now.

Some keyholes or armor plates, or whatever Panini was going for here.

And the rest of the trade. Hornung will go in my Packers binder (I guess Trevor had a dupe?) Peterson and Ryan are my favorites here. I miss Topps Chrome (non-baseball) cards.

Trevor, thanks for the trade! I hope you're as happy with it as I am. 

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I Need More Gore

I originally planned to make this a Halloween-themed post, but it ended up being more of a statistical analysis post. Bear with me.


Halloween is almost here, and so I thought it would be the perfect time to talk about Gore.

Not Al Gore, crusader for climate cleanliness and inventor of the internet. I could discuss him and why he didn't become our 43rd President (*cough* Jeb *cough* scotus) but I won't.

Nor is this a post about Martin Gore, guitarist and chief songwriter of the legendary band Depeche Mode.  Isn't it about time they were inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame? When are 80's bands gonna get some love?


But no... that's not the subject of this post, either. This is after all a sports card blog (although I have been thinking of tinkering with the format) and so the focus of this post is Indianapolis Colts running back Frank Gore:

Much like Martin and Al, Frank Gore is vastly underrated. Or maybe not. I have to admit I'm not as much of a football fan as I used to be (and it has nothing to do with the player protests.) With the NFL becoming a pass-happy league over the past decade or so, it's been hard for me to quantify which quarterbacks and wide receivers are truly great, and which ones are merely good players with inflated numbers. It should be easier to identify the all-time great running backs - but as you'll see, my knowledge is still incomplete.

As great running backs gradually became an endangered species, I began to keep an eye on the few who were still racking up "old school" rushing stats, specifically LaDanian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson. When Peterson was traded to the Cardinals - and then rushed for 134 yards and two TDs in his Arizona debut - I checked his career stats on Pro Football Reference to see where he ranks on the all-time list.

I assumed that "A.D." was in the top-10 all time in rushing yards and TD's. That's when I learned two things that surprised me:

Peterson is "only" 16th all-time in rushing (as of 10/25/17)... and Frank Gore is 7th.

Frank Gore has more career rushing yards than Peterson, Thurman Thomas, Marshall Faulk, Jim Brown, Tony Dorsett, and Eric Dickerson. By the end of this year he could pass Jerome Bettis, Tomlinson, and Curtis Martin. If he passes Martin - which is unlikely, but possible - he'll be fourth all time in rushing yards.

Emmitt Smith...Walter Payton...Barry Sanders...Frank Gore?!?

I honestly had no idea Gore was this good. I also had no idea that's he's 34 years old (well past the expiration date for NFL running backs) and still starting for the Colts. Also, I had no idea his nickname is ...wait for it...



The Inconvenient Truth

Obvious Al Gore reference aside, it is sort of fitting. I would never have considered Frank Gore as a top-10 or even top-20 all-time great running back. But he is. And here's my attempt to prove it.

Below is a list of every running back with 12,000 career rushing yards and a career average of 4 yards per carry and at least 75 career rushing touchdowns:

name	yards	YPC	rush TDs
Emmitt Smith	18,355	4.2	164
Walter Payton	16,726	4.4	110
Barry Sanders	15,269	5.0	99
Curtis Martin	14,101	4.0	90
LaDanian Tomlinson	13,684	4.3	145
Frank Gore	13,387	4.4	76
Eric Dickerson	13,259	4.4	90
Tony Dorsett	12,739	4.3	77
Jim Brown	12,312	5.2	106
Marshall Faulk	12,279	4.3	100
Edgerrin James	12,246	4.0	80
Marcus Allen	12,243	4.1	123
Franco Harris	12,120	4.1	91
Adrian Peterson	11,983*	4.8	99

*I'm assuming Peterson will gain 17 more yards this year

Now I see why Gore may have slid under the radar - his touchdown total isn't that impressive for someone who has carried the ball over 3,000 times through 13 seasons. In fact the low TD totals are downright strange; Gore has one season of double-digit rushing scores. Last year he rushed for 1,025 yards and four TDs. He also caught 38 passes - four of them for scores. (See what I mean about a pass-happy league?)

Rushing yards alone isn't a good indicator, it penalizes great backs with short careers and/or those who played a 12-or 14- game schedule. Average yards per game is a bit more equitable, and at the moment Gore is 35th all-time with 71.6 ypg. Remember how I said it would be difficult for him to catch Curtis Martin for fourth-all time in rushing yards? Gore would need to average 79.4 yards over the Colts' last nine games this season to do so. 

There is probably a website out there with much more analytical data that can accurately compare today's ball carriers like Gore and Peterson against the legends of yesteryear. But I just want to know for card collecting purposes.

I don't have a whole lot of (non-Packers) football cards, and I stopped buying packs and boxes around 2004 - mostly for budget reasons. Running backs who were great before '04 are in the Hall of Fame and their cards are in my star player box. Adrian Peterson is obviously a future HOFer, and one of a small handful of players I've sort-of collected over the past decade. 

But all of the other good-to-great backs over the past decade plus have befuddled me: Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, Ricky Watters, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Tiki Barber, Eddie George, Ricky Williams, Clinton Portis,  Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Shaun Alexander, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy.

Some of them are in my star box, some are in my commons binders. I've never been able to draw a line between them. But now I think I've found it.

Edgerrin James looked like a Hall of Famer to me (see the chart above) but he's not in. And if he's not Hall worthy than those guys definitely aren't. Frank Gore, on the other hand.. he belongs in the conversation of all-time greats. And he belongs in my star player box. 

Unfortunately I don't have any of his cards. Well, that's not entirely true. I have this one...

...in my sealed factory set of 2005 Topps, which I bought for the Aaron Rodgers rookie card.  

I know there aren't too many football card traders on the blogosphere (and I've only received one return trade package over the past few attempts) so perhaps I'll grab some Gore on COMC, and maybe some other stars to bring my football card collection up to date.


Who is your favorite running back to watch or collect?  What players can you think of (in any sport) that are quietly building a Hall of Fame caliber career?


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Today's Best: Starting Pitchers

At the end of every baseball season I sort through the league leaders in batting and pitching categories, paying special attention to superstars building Hall of Fame careers, rookies who took the league by storm, and breakout seasons from players who might be better than I realize. 

I also do this for card sorting purposes. My star player box usually has a small bit of turnover after every season as I re-evaluate which veteran players are under-performing and which young guns or late-bloomers have earned their place among the superstars of their sport. 

Though I do analyze the just-completed season's stats as a guide, I don't consider a player a "star" based off one good season (unless that player is a record-breaking rookie.) In my book (er, box) a player's performance over the last three seasons is the key to considering that player a star. 

In some cases, an established veteran can stay in my star box even if their last three seasons have been sub-par. It might be difficult to get in, but it's even harder to be kicked out. This is partially because I dislike going through the trouble of making room in my commons binders - but mostly because it's hard for me to give up on a player who was once a perennial All-Star. I'm talking about players like Joe Mauer, Ryan Braun, and the player that inspired this blog post - CC Sabathia.

 
On Saturday, as the Yankees desperately tried to prevent the Red Sox from clinching the A.L. East crown, Sabathia took the hill for Yanks against Toronto. The Yankee broadcasters - specifically David Cone and Ken Singleton - discussed Sabathia's chances of reaching the Hall of Fame and the 300-win mark. 

That got me thinking. Not about CC's HOF chances (I think he's two good seasons away, the YES homers said he's one away) but what they said about 300 wins. I can't remember the exact quote, but the gist of it was that Sabathia is the last guy that has a shot.

Here is my rebuttal to that:

Clayton Kershaw is 29 years old. He plays for the best team in baseball, and the team with the league's highest payroll. Assuming Kershaw's arm doesn't fall off (not a given considering his recent injury trouble) he could easily duplicate the 144 wins he's already banked. That would give him 288 before he turns 40. 

Justin Verlander has an outside shot at 300 wins - and I would give him slightly better odds than CC Sabathia. Verlander will start next season as a 35 year-old with 188 career wins, nearly 50 behind Sabathia's total of 237. But if the longtime Tiger stays healthy (he's made 30 or more starts in all but one season) and stays with the Astros (who are built to win for the long haul) he could add another 75-80 wins to his total before he turns 40. 

Sabathia is only 63 shy of the magic mark - but he's already 37 (not that 37 is old, mind you!) and even with a stellar comeback season in '17, he's averaged just 8 wins over the past four campaigns. CC would have to exceed that into his age 41 season (or pitch until he's 42) just to reach 270 wins. Btw, 270 would match Mike Mussina's career win total, and Moose is not in the Hall of Fame (yet?)

Zack Greinke could get there as well. He'll be 34 this month, he has 172 career W's, and he pitches for a playoff team. Greinke's a gamer, but his social anxiety issues could lead to an abrupt retirement (he had to be talked out of retiring early in his career.)  Aside from that it's no sure bet Arizona will contend each of the next six years - but if Greinke can manage a 15-win average with the D-backs (or another team) he'll have about 260 wins banked before he turns 40.

What do Sabathia, Kerhsaw, and Grienke have in common? They started accumulating wins at age 20 (Verlander was 22 when he made his MLB debut) Pitchers just don't do that anymore. 

Felix Hernandez won more games at age 20 than he did at age 30. He's got 160 wins and won't turn 32 until early next season, but he's trending downward for a below-average Seattle team. I've considered pulling his cards from my star box, but I'll give him one more year to dig out of this decline.


In conclusion, while I disagree that Sabathia is the last potential 300-game winner in baseball, I can't imagine anyone other than these aces getting there. That's because all of today's top starting pitchers are approaching or exceeding 30 years of age.

These are the 12 active starting pitchers in my "star player" box, listed youngest to oldest:

Madison Bumgarner (8/1/1989)
Chris Sale (3/30/1989)
Masahiro Tanaka (11/1/1988)
Stephen Strasburg (7/20/1988)
Clayton Kershaw (3/19/1988)
Yu Darvish (8/16/1986)
Felix Hernandez (4/8/1986)
David Price (8/26/1985)
Max Scherzer (7/27/1984)
Zack Greinke (10/21/1983)
Justin Verlander (2/20/1983) 
CC Sabathia (7/21/1980)

I've combed through the list of other active starters to consider, and most of them are in the same age bracket:

Cole Hamels - quietly putting together a stellar career
Jon Lester - my Red Sox-colored glasses cloud my judgment on Jon
Jake Arrieta - late bloomer who may already be descending from his peak
Dallas Keuchel - I need to see what he does next year before I decide
Jacob deGrom - see above
Corey Kluber - it may be time to demote Darvish and send in the Klubot

It might also be time to acquire some Kluber base cards.

This is when I realized that one reason why there are no young aces anymore is because two of them - Jose Fernandez and Yordano Ventura - tragically passed away. 

Which leads me to another question - who is baseball's next great starting pitcher?
Is it Luis Severino? Noah Syndergaard? Robbie Ray? Julio Urias? Because unless Shohei Otani is coming to pitch in the majors next year I don't see any young pitcher breaking through the baseball world, the baseball card hobby, or my star box any time soon.


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I Thought We Had Settled This

Remember my posts a while back asking readers to help me sort my card collection by deciding which players belong in my "star box" and which players belong in my commons binders?

I forgot to do hockey.

Well, it's not that I forgot so much as I got distracted and didn't think there were enough hockey fans on the card blogging blogosphere to have an opinion on how I classified such players as Chris Osgood, Patrice Bergeron, or Filip Forsberg. So I used my own judgment.

This past weekend I finally cleaned and organized my entire card collection. Everything is sorted and stored neat and tidy. My OCD is happy.. at least it would be, if I had put all my Pierre Turgeon cards in one place. 

Somehow I managed to split my Turgeon cards into both the "star player box" and the binders. This was strange for two reasons: all of the cards in the box were from his years with the Montreal Canadiens but his Sabres, Islanders, and Blues cards were in my commons binders (as if I subconsciously decided he was only a star in Montreal?) 

The second thing that irked me was that I really did not know which side Turgeon belonged on. He's not a Hall Of Famer (which would earn an automatic place in my box) but his numbers compare very favorably to many of his contemporaries - some of whom are in the HHOF (I've indicated those players in blue)

	first year	last year	Cups	Goals	Assists	Points	PPG
Doug Gilmour	1983	2003	1	450	964	1414	0.959
Mike Modano	1989	2011	1	561	813	1374	0.917
Mats Sundin	1990	2009	0	564	785	1349	1.002
Pierre Turgeon	1987	2007	0	515	812	1327	1.026
Jeremy Roenick	1988	2009	0	513	703	1216	0.892
Vin Damphousse	1986	2004	1	432	773	1205	0.875
Rod Brind'Amour	1989	2010	1	452	732	1184	0.798
Sergei Fedorov	1990	2009	3	483	696	1179	0.945
Joe Nieuwendyk	1986	2007	3	564	562	1126	0.896
Doug Weight	1991	2011	1	278	755	1033	0.834

 

Okay, so he didn't win a Stanley Cup or any major awards (unless you consider the Lady Byng trophy a "major" award) but he has a higher points per game average than anyone on this list, and I'm having a hard time separating him from first-ballot HOFer Mats Sundin. 

Jeremy Roenick is an interesting case as well. I'm not quite sold on his Hall of Fame candidacy, but there's no denying he was a star. Damphousse, Brind'Amour, and Weight are better suited for the "Hall of Very Good", though Brind'Amour's two-way play might get him in the HHOF one day. 


I never really thought of Pierre Turgeon as a bona fide star the way Sundin and Modano and Roenick and Fedorov and Gilmour were stars. (I never thought of Joe Nieuwendyk as a star, either.) And yet his career numbers tell me I should. No wonder I had his cards sorted in two different places!



Can you think of any deserving players who are not in the Hockey Hall of Fame?



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Today's Best: My Active Baseball Stars base card collection

The Boston Red Sox made a blockbuster trade earlier today, acquiring Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale for #1 prospect Yoan Moncada, pitching prospect Michael Kopech, and two more prospects.

Once again Dave Dombrowski makes a "win now" move by gutting the farm. Sale might be better than the two Cy Young award winners currently in Boston's rotation (and he comes with a much more team-friendly salary than David Price or Rick Porcello) but I don't feel great about giving up Moncada, a 21 year old super prospect who has been compared to Robinson Cano.

Sale, Price, and Cano are just three of the active players in my "star player" base card box. I have a lot fewer base cards from the past 5-10 years, so there wont be as many scans in this post. Basically the purpose of this post will be to show you how I choose which players belong in the box, and which players go into the commons binders.

As you can imagine, this is a difficult task for current players. Some players come out of nowhere and have monster years after years of mediocrity. Others start their careers on a path to Cooperstown - but flame out early due to injuries, or other factors. How does one decide which players have 'banked' enough great seasons to be considered a star player?

Let's start with the easy ones.

any objections?

Albert Pujols and Ichiro could retire today and would easily be first-ballot Hall of Famers in five years (unless we find out "The Machine" was fueled by PEDs)

Two more future Hall of Famers: Beltran and Beltre

don't touch my head!

I'm confident that this batch of star hitters belong in the box:

 
Hanley Ramirez is in the box. So are Ryan Braun, Jose Abreu and Robbie Cano (don't cha know)

After that I'm a little lost. The top pitchers in the game (outside of Kershaw) aren't always valued as such in the collecting world. For instance, Stephen Strasburg appears to be more of a hobby star than Max Scherzer, despite the fact that Scherzer is clearly the better pitcher.

I try to ignore the Beckett star system and use my own formula. Consistency matters. Stats matter. Market factors, national name recognition, and hobby love don't matter as much. Which is why my "star pitcher" rotation would be anchored by Kershaw, and followed by these four aces:

I've also got Strasburg, David Price, Felix Hernandez, and CC Sabathia in the box. I would have Masahiro Tanaka in as well - but I don't have any cards of him. (Same for Manny Machado, in case you were wondering why he's not on the list.)

Now let's have a little fun: here's a list of 25 active players that might be considered 'semi-stars', regional favorites, or what have you. Some of them have been in my "star player box" for years based on reputation and past performance. Some have been overdue for a promotion or demotion - but I haven't had time to review the stats until now. 

• Jose Bautista 
• Yoenis Cespedes
• Aroldis Chapman
• Gerrit Cole
• Yu Darvish
• Jacob deGrom
• Josh Donaldson
• Freddie Freeman
• Adrian Gonzalez
• Carlos Gonzalez
• Zack Greinke
• Matt Harvey
• Matt Holliday
• Eric Hosmer
• Ryan Howard
• Ian Kinsler
• Jon Lester
• Francisco Lindor
• Evan Longoria
• Joe Mauer
• Andrew McCutchen
• Noah Syndergaard  
• Troy Tulowitzki
• Chase Utley
• David Wright

How would you classify these players? Are there any bona fide superstars on this list? Share your thoughts in comments!



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Stuck In the Middle: My Retired Baseball Greats base card collection

In my last post I showed off some of my base cards of Baseball Hall Of Famers. Now I'll list my base cards of retired greats who were considered stars in their playing days but are not enshrined in Cooperstown. 

Some of these players have not been retired for the requisite five years, while others are on the ballot and may one day be elected. 

Some have legendary statistics but are being excluded for different reasons - as I discussed in an earlier blog post. They won't be excluded here.       

Here are some of my favorite base cards of these retired superstars...



Don Mattingly was a PC player back in the day.

So was Sammy Sosa.

1992 Fleer Ultra was one of my favorite sets as a kid...but 1993 Ultra might be even better.

 Trois Expos (how about that outfield, Mike Matson?)

 

Bo!

Mo!

Jeff Bagwell in his ZZ Top days. He's knocking on the Hall Of Fame doors, and I think they'll let him very soon. I hope his plaque will show off this sweet beard.

A pair of pre-Papi cards from 1998 - Bowman Chrome & Bowman's Best. These are the oldest David Ortiz cards I own, for some reason I do not have either of his 1997 Fleer RC's.

 

Jeter and A-Rod in their rookie seasons. My vote for best baseball uniform of all-time goes to the mid-90's Mariners. What's your favorite?

 

 Le Big Mac.

 

 Barry Bonds was a hard player to root for. This 1994 Flair card is a lot more likeable.

I knew a guy in high school who called himself "the biggest Gary Sheffield fan you'll ever meet." He even wore a gold chain with Sheff's #10.

 

I dig those orange Orioles throwbacks Raffy's sporting on this 2005 Leaf card. (And did I mention I used to collect Sosa cards?) PEDs or not, there's nearly 1,200 career home runs between these two.

 

 I saw Todd Helton play for the double-A New Haven Ravens a time or two.

 

Why are there two Mark Teixeira cards in this 2011 Topps Heritage set? And how did I end up with both of them? (true story: my bff once mispronounced Tex's name. He called him "Max.")

 

A pair of Rockets. I won a pack war game with the Tri-Star prospects card; the pot went to the holder of the oldest prospect. How about this guy? He was born in 1962.

 Has there ever been a cooler home run celebration than this?

We'll end with this iconic Derek Jeter card from 2015 Topps (can a card from last year be called 'iconic' yet?)

Here's a complete list of every retired star player in the box, and how many cards I have of that player. (please note: this list does not include inserts, parallels, rookie cards, memorabilia, autographs, graded singles, Red Sox cards, etc...)


Jeff Bagwell (18)
Barry Bonds (18)
Roger Clemens (7)
Prince Fielder (9)
Nomar Garciaparra (5)
Vladimir Guerrero (20)
Roy Halladay (5)
Todd Helton (16)
Trevor Hoffman (13)
Bo Jackson (7)
Joe Jackson (1)
Derek Jeter (15)
Chipper Jones (10)
Jeff Kent (6)
Don Mattingly (54)
Mark McGwire (10)
Mike Mussina (15)
David Ortiz (3)
Rafael Palmeiro (9)
Tim Raines (5)
Manny Ramirez (7)
Mariano Rivera (6)
Alex Rodriguez (14)
Ivan Rodriguez (16)
Pete Rose (2)
Curt Schilling (25)
Gary Sheffield (12)
Sammy Sosa (49)
Mark Teixeira (7)
Jim Thome (15)
Larry Walker (10)


Now for the fun part!

Some of those players are all-time greats and belong in the box, if not the Hall Of Fame. Tim Raines cards were in my binders for years, and I promoted him when it started to look like he'd be elected to the HOF (then again, I did the same thing for Jack Morris.) I dont think anyone reading this would dispute Bonds, Clemens, Jeter, Rose, or A-Rod. But what about the other players? Are there any names on this list that you don't consider star players?


On the other side of the coin, there are some statistically comparable players who have been left out of the box. I flipped through my binders last night and realized that I have no good explanation as to where I drew the line. That's why I need your help...

The following 44 players are in my commons binders at the moment - but they're all borderline Hall Of Famers and/or were considered star players during their career. For your consideration:

• Albert Belle
• Kevin Brown
• Jose Canseco
• Joe Carter
• Will Clark
• David Cone
• Johnny Damon
• Eric Davis
• Carlos Delgado
• Dwight Evans 
• Cecil Fielder 
• Steve Garvey
• Jason Giambi
• Juan Gonzalez
• Dwight Gooden
• Tim Hudson 
• Torii Hunter
• Andruw Jones
• Kenny Lofton
• Fred Lynn
• Edgar Martinez
• Fred McGriff
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy 
• Graig Nettles
• John Olerud
• Dave Parker
• Andy Pettitte
• Jorge Posada
• Scott Rolen
• Bret Saberhagen
• Johan Santana
• Lee Smith
• Alfonso Soriano
• Darryl Strawberry
• Miguel Tejada
• Alan Trammell
• Fernando Valenzuela
• Mo Vaughn
• Omar Vizquel
• Billy Wagner 
• Lou Whitaker 
• Bernie Williams
• Michael Young

  Do any of these names jump off the screen (and into the box?)


There are also a handful of players who were stars before my time, and therefore I don't feel as qualified to determine their proper place: Vida Blue, Bill Freehan, Frank Howard, Jim Kaat, Mickey Lolich, Minnie Minoso, and Bill Skowron could be considered 'minor stars' but I think Gil Hodges and Roger Maris are star player box worthy for sure. What say you?
 



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